Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
